Today on CNBC they said one could make a pile of money if one could guess when they would raise rates again. This highlights one of the biggest atrocities in the World’s economic system. Trillions of dollars are tied up in the currency futures, hedging the wild swings in the value of currency, trillions that could be invested in productive activities, if only the world had a stable unit of account. The price of commodities didn’t budge an inch from 1920-1971, 51 years of the greatest economic growth in world history. Then in 1971, at the urging of the monetarists, Nixon closed the London Gold window. Gold was $35 an ounce then, and oil was $3.50 a barrel. Inflation is not a natural occurring phenomenon, and especially not due to growth and prosperity. The only thing that causes inflation and deflation is an imbalance in the amount of liquidity in the system, a balance that is the single and only charter of the Federal Reserve. It is a failure of epic proportions.
And the Crisis is purely a fiction. I am listening to Bernanke in the background testifying in the Senate. None of this would be happening without the Mark to Market rule. None of it. 8% of mortgages have defaulted. Mark to Market has caused 100% of them to marked down creating billions of false, paper losses, and a false lowering of assets, which brings in the regulators applying Capital Requirement Rules, which legally keeps the banks from lending. This freeze has been and continues to be created soley by the Federal Government. Pete Townshend is right. We do live on an immanence front, and it is purely a put on.
The Credit Freeze is 100% purely created by the government, and the solution can be implemented in one day. Simply eliminate “Mark to Market” and return the billions in false paper losses to the banks, so that their Capital structure is sound, their stock prices go back up, and they lend again.
I just heard Bernanke say “There is no ‘magic bullet'” Yes there is. There actually is no “Crisis” but since we are playing make believe, the Magic Bullet is simply to illeminate “Mark to Market” and it all magically goes away. But it is more advantageous to the Establishment to have a Crisis, because they know how to use it to their advantage.
It just occurred to me that this is an exact mirror of the false crisis of the immanence of Iraq’s danger to the U.S. used as an excuse to spend a trillion, actually to line pockets with a trillion. This is a false domestic crisis used as an excuse to spend a trillion, actually to line the pockets of legalized thievery with a trillion. Only its in the name of a “Domestic Crisis” instead of a Foreign Affairs “Crisis”
I posted this on the GilderTech Forum. Here were some responses:
Update: 3/30/13 – Wow, this article was written a long time ago, but political and economic shifts tend to play out over decades, so from that perspective, it’s not that old. Anyway, this story came across my Facebook newsfeed today. And I thought it was relevant, to this, one of my first blog posts, New Study Confirms Economy was Destroyed by Democratic Policies by Examiner.com.
If Congress had not required through law that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae securitize loans to people who did not qualify**, the sub prime crisis, “ground-zero” of the whole thing, would have never begun. But even so, Sub Prime was only 1% of the mortgage market. It was not big enough to cause an entire Financial meltdown. What caused this brush fire to spread into a full blown conflagration of epic proportions was a simple but profoundly stupid regulation written in 1992 called the “Mark to Market” rule. Simply put, over the last 6 months banks and other financial institutions have had to write down enormous amounts of assets to below par, even when those assets are being held to maturity, and still performing. What determines the “market price”? Buyers of course. But since the loans, the assets have been packaged with other financial instruments, including the common and preferred shares of the intitutions themselves, they become mixed together under a dark cloud of “will the Fed, Treasury, or FDIC declare them insolvent and wipe out their shareholder equity overnite?” What buyer will step into that market? And so since there is no “buyer” for the securities, the “market price” of the assets becomes determined to be pennies on the dollar. Enter “Mark to Market,” a standard that has no basis in FASB or GAAP accounting. In GAAP accounting a profit or loss on an asset is only taken when a transaction takes place. No transactions have taken place because the market is frozen with fear. Even if there was a “fair” market value placed on these assets, the banks would not necessarily be willing to sell them. It’s their business to hold them to maturity and to make interest as an income. That’s how banks make money.
So it merely becomes a vicious cycle: Regulatory agencies force financial institutions to mark down assets that can’t be sold because of the fear driven into the potential buyer by the cloud of the Regulatory agencies themselves.
There is no financial crisis. There was no lack of regulation. What we have is a regulatory crisis. The source of this problem which is ruining and has the potential to ruin the lives of millions, is the government itself.
Why was was this financial crisis a hoax? Because the establishment knows how to take advantage of the wild swings. You know the old say, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets”? Creating “blood in the streets” is an opportunity for them, at the expense of the people. What can we do about it? Become educated, let our voices be heard, register to vote, and support representatives who represent the people and not “special interests” who are the agents of the Establishment.
(*Update 2-22-09) – I’ve noticed today that many analysts are confirming part of my theory. Santelli, Mike Holland, David Malpass, among others have said repeatedly today that private investors who were for a while buying these ‘toxic’ assets at 27-30 cents on the dollar, pulled back when the shadow of the Government stepped in.